The Fallacy of Unambiguous Warning

This article examines how unambiguous warning, a term used in the Intelligence Community to categorize a clear indication of impending conflict, has been conceptualized. Using the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the Pearl Harbor attack as case studies, the article shows that unambiguous warning is an inadequate planning tool that can lead to dire consequences in the quest for certainty. This document was published in the Autumn 2024 issue of The U.S. Army War College Quarterly, Parameters.