U.S. human space endeavors are focused on a return to the Moon, with an initial landing of U.S. astronauts expected in the 2020s. Some in the space industry have argued that a return to the Moon may lead to the creation of a more commercially oriented lunar economy. We examined the contours and future scale of demand drivers of lunar and cislunar activities through 2040 to ascertain whether private sector demand could support commercial lunar activities. Our focus was on non-NASA commercial demand.